By Nicusor Dan, mayor of Bucharest and mathematician, won with 53.60 percent, and George Simion, leader of AUR, stands with 46.40 percent. The difference is almost 700 000 votes. The diaspora is still counting, but it is impossible for Simion to come back, despite winning outside with 55.86 percent to Dan’s 44.14 percent. (The exact standing at the time of writing.)
After the annulment of the second round of the Romanian presidential elections in December last year, where independent candidate Calin Georgescu – independent candidate – won the first round, Romania headed towards a new election day whose validity has since been debated by some.
Nicusor Dan, mayor of Bucharest and mathematician, won with 53.60 percent, and George Simion, leader of AUR, stands with 46.40 percent. The difference is almost 700 000 votes. The diaspora is still counting, but it is impossible for Simion to come back, despite winning outside with 55.86 percent to Dan’s 44.14 percent. (The exact standing at the time of writing.)
This has surprised many political analysts, who did not expect Dan to be able to overtake George Simion. The high turnout has favored the progressive candidate; that has been one of the key developments. But so has been the vote of the Hungarian minority, which in cities like Cluj has decided to support Nicusor Dan, following Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s favourable words towards Simion a few weeks ago. In fact, 90 percent of the Hungarian minority decided to vote for the centrist candidate, rather than vote for Simion, as the words and gestures the AUR leader had in the past were received as anti-Hungarian and it seems that at the moment, they have not forgiven him.
Dan’s victory means a triumph of Europeanism. He will be aligned with the president of France, Emmanuel Macron, or the president of the European People’s Party, Manfred Weber, and that Europeanist center that seemed to be receding, but that with this victory is gaining strength again.
This is a clear defeat for the new conservative right. Some blame it on U.S. President Donald Trump, a figure who, for many, can no longer be a reference point for the right. But it is too early to draw definitive conclusions.
The ECR loses a potential ally in the European Council that would have been very important. Likewise, positions that do not want arms, ammunition and other support to be sent to Ukraine, such as Orban or Slovakian head of government Robert Fico, lose an ally in that sense; Simion has vehemently criticized the Russian invasion from the beginning, he has preferred to have a more diplomatic position on the matter, although always saying that it was necessary to offer security guarantees so that what happened would not be repeated.
Potential Reasons Behind the Upset
First of all, there were many people who went to vote, who in the first round did not decide to do so. That is to say, there was a great mobilization that hurt Simion. That mobilization was due to the fact that Simion swept the first round, getting almost 41 percent of the vote. This gave the feeling that everyone had to mobilize to prevent his victory, something that perhaps did not happen so much in the conservative camp, because it gave the feeling that everything was already done.
Secondly, the fear campaign worked: “Simion is going to isolate us, we will not receive any more money from the EU…” Let’s remember that the European Union has been very important because it has done a lot of projects, like renovations of hospitals and schools so, the image of the EU among Romanians is still very positive.
Thirdly, despite the fact that Simion has repeated many times that he does not support Russia and Vladimir Putin, he has been labeled as such and this could have been detrimental to him.
Above all, if Ukraine were to fall, although unlikely, the next one would probably be Moldova, which for the vast majority of Romanians is considered their country.
Fourthly, one of the few possible mistakes in the Simion campaign was that it did not organize more debates. That could give people the feeling that he was in hiding and did not want to go up against his rival, something that many people reproached him for. Also, it would have been a great opportunity to say clearly what he thinks about many issues, even if the media could manipulate or twist his words.
Fifth, the diaspora was also key, because although Simion won it, he did not win it by as much as in the first round.
Sixth, Simion is only 38 years old and age in Romania is still a relevant factor, even if for many it is secondary. Also, Simion has been a political activist for years and many still remember his role as a young man, something that would not benefit him.
Another Possible Lead: French and Moldavian Interference
On the Friday before the elections, the first day for the diaspora to vote, an alleged fraud from Moldova was announced. In fact, from AUR, they affirm that this could already be foreseen to happen.
Also, on the same day of the elections, Pavel Durov, CEO of messaging app Telegram, publicly disclosed that the French intelligence service pressured him to censor conservative accounts on the platform, something he refused to do.
Yesterday, George Simion, made public that some 649 million euros were used from the European Union to censor Romanian conservative voices. Moreover, this very afternoon he announced that he has officially asked the Romanian Constitutional Court to suspend the presidential elections for the same reasons that the first ones were suspended, for alleged foreign interference. He claims, this time with evidence, both for what Durov said, as well as what he denounces from Moldova.
Finally, Durov reposted Simion’s post saying that if necessary, he would be prepared to testify in Romania if necessary.
At the moment there are very serious accusations and Simion’s side claims to have proof, something that in the other suspended elections was never made public.
