By At the same time, traditional center-right parties face a mirror-image crisis: as voters defect to the far-right, mainstream conservatives have responded by hardening their positions on migration, identity and security—often legitimizing the radical right’s agenda without necessarily winning its voters back.
The reasons and the contradictions for the recent far-right surge were properly summarized in The Parliament Magazine:
“The shift suggests that economic anxieties of the early 2010s gave way to corollary concerns for which establishment parties had unsatisfying answers. The far-right pounced, reframing migration as a threat to both economic stability and national security, despite the boost it gives to the former and the lack of a link to the latter.”
The Left at Crossroads
For years, people have abandoned center-left parties for a wide variety of reasons—not the least because such parties failed to solve the affordability crisis and to pursue moderate policies. Policies that were at the basis of Leftist politics for decades.
Internal disintegration, identity difficulties and challenges in engaging with its traditional voters (working- and middle class) seem to have contributed to their long-term collapse.
Voters drawn in by the same progressive politics that alienated the traditional blue-collar base were nowhere near enough to counterbalance the process. And they come from a completely different societal background than the “original” voters of the Left, further driving the internal fragmentation.
As the rise of nationalist and far-right parties proves, voters will turn to parties that deliver solutions.
The tide is not changing yet for the far-left Germany’s Die Linke or Austria’s KPÖ achieved fair success recently), but the possibility is in the air.
Spain’s Socialists, led by Pedro Sánchez, raised the minimum wage; lowered taxes for the poor; strengthened employees’ rights, and, most importantly, addressed housing issues.
Germany’s Bread and Butter Issues
The centrist dilemma is especially evident in Germany, where economic stagnation and poor integration of immigrants have pushed voters to the AfD. In search of a remedy, the centrist parties are trying to appear more radical than the populist-nationalists.
Similar patterns are also observed in the UK and France.
While CDU leader Friedrich Merz has kept his distance from the AfD rhetorically, he has also worked with them in the Bundestag.
This strategy was relatively successful for him, as the CDU-CSU won last year’s general election, albeit only by a small margin over its far-right competitor.
According to an analysis, the parties’ manifestos were around 75 percent identical.
Since being in power, Merz has called for permanent border controls, more restrictive migration measures, and easier deportation and rejection procedures for asylum seekers.
Measures that not only satisfy the core AfD voters but are also popular in the traditional right-wing electorate and – in certain cases – among settled immigrants as well.
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) advocated steps to help the lagging economy, such as income tax reform and curbing energy corporations’ surplus profits, citing the need for a new growth model.
The announced tax reform targeted the wealthy, who would pay greater taxes, while providing relief to ordinary citizens. The announced tax reform aimed at the rich, who would pay higher taxes, and provided relief to ordinary citizens.
The announcement was spurred by the poor results in the regional elections, and showed the party was serious about delivering on the “bread and butter issues”.
France: The Only Solution is Le Pen
Fewer than nine months from the crucial 2027 election, it’s clear that the left won’t be able to nominate a single candidate, so their votes will split.
However, the center-left won major cities like Paris and Marseille in the spring municipal elections but fell short at the national level, and
The once-mighty Mitterrand-era Socialist Party has fallen, leading it to sell its historic headquarters to cover debts. Currently, it holds only 65 of the 577 members in the National Assembly.
Speaking of the much less relevant center-right, the 2022 presidential election was a traumatic experience for conservatives, as Les Républicains (LR) ’s nominee Valérie Pécresse got fewer than 5 percent of the vote in the first round. Since then, LR has frequently collaborated with Macron’s coalition to pass laws, such as the 2023 pension reform and immigration bill.
Not surprisingly, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National is likely to want to stick to a “neither left nor right” line and an anti-establishment stance.
In France, voters have another reason to consider the radical right: they perceive no other options.
This is the finding of new research on French voters done by Deborah Mattinson and Claire Ainsley, both linked to the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), a center-left organization.
The voters interviewed have a strong belief that France is collapsing. They recalled feeling frightened on the streets, surrounded by “littering, swearing, disrespect toward elders, and contempt for the public realm.”
France stands out as a land of political devastation – a country where voters are so despairing, and the center is so destitute – that Marine Le Pen, despite her criminal conviction, could be the next president.
Instead of a Conclusion
As many people perceive that extremism is increasingly tearing Europe apart, the “center” or “traditional” politics may even be popular.
Online bots that spread mostly conspiracy theories on migration and muslim invasion on social media also undermine this trust, and populist-nationalist forces are clearly more adept at using alternative media platforms.
Immediately after World War II, thanks to the protective umbrella and financial support of the United States, centrist forces in Western Europe enjoyed a kind of heyday.
Alongside the continuous economic growth, these welfare societies also had an external enemy: the Soviet Union. As soon as the external threat had apparently passed and the sustainability of living standards came under threat, the complacent traditional parties immediately found themselves irrelevant.
As long as the political center cannot provide satisfactory answers to complex questions, it will have to make way for new, anti-establishment forces. We shall see whether they can regain political power in the medium term, and whether center-party parties will remain on the political scene at all.
