By The U.S. president announced on June 21 that U.S. aircraft had struck three Iranian nuclear sites, just days after indicating that he might delay any American military action for weeks. After the US bombings on Iran’s nuclear sites, the 12-day conflict, as it is known, appears to have concluded. Nonetheless, both Israel and the United States may find it more appealing to eliminate the Islamic Republic’s current leadership in addition to its nuclear program.
On June 22, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu admitted to Fox News that Israel’s operation in Iran “could certainly result” in a regime change in Iran.
The idea of killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also surfaced during the conflict. After reportedly rejecting an Israeli plan to kill Khamenei, Trump stated in his social media post that Khamenei was an “easy target.”
Examples of Failed Regime Changes
In 2001, the Taliban regime was overthrown by the Coalition of the Willing, leading to a pro-Western government.
But for a serious price: between 2001 and 2021, nearly 1,600 Western soldiers and 50,000 Afghan civilians were killed, and the mission cost nearly $1 billion. And all these for what?
The Taliban returned in September 2021, following a chaotic withdrawal of the U.S. and its allies, and reversed almost all the progress that had been made during this period.
In Iraq, twenty years after the American invasion and the attempted regime change, the situation has improved. Nonetheless, the first decade was all about never-ending violence between the American troops and various rebel/terrorist groups who also fight with each other. Now, the intensity of violence has died down, and U.S. troops have also limited their presence. After countless incompetent governments, democracy has gained ground in the country: the next round of parliamentary elections is due to take place in November.
Any attempt at regime change in the Islamic Republic risks collapsing the state altogether – a scenario that could splinter Iran and send shockwaves across the Middle East.
Any kind of power shift in Iran wouldn’t necessarily produce a regime friendly to the U.S. or Israel – and could empower more hardline figures. Such a shift may accelerate Iran’s drive toward a nuclear weapon as the ultimate deterrent in response to the destruction caused by American and Israeli strikes.
What if the Supreme Leader is Gone?
As the New York Times reported, preparing for the worst-case scenario, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has already named three senior clerics as candidates to succeed him should he be killed.
If Khamenei were no longer in the picture, an internal coup by senior government and military figures could keep the structure of the Islamic Republic going and prevent a new revolution.
A military dictatorship is another possibility, orchestrated by the elite Revolutionary Guard. The guard is tasked with defending the Islamic Revolution.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in May 2025. Photo: khamenei.ir on Wikimedia Commons.
A takeover by the political opposition could follow a military defeat and the collapse of the government. Still, they are oppressed, many of them killed or jailed, so it’s less likely.
Iran is still strong enough to suppress its own population, likely leading to a new wave of repression. It just came in that Iran started massive crackdown against the country’s rights group who has recorded 705 arrests on political or security charges since the start of the war with Israel.
Sara Kermanian, an international relations analyst argued that there are groups who put hopes in the elite change, particularly those who support the son of the toppled Shah, but there are also some communities that are trying to organize themselves. Most likely the regime will eradicate these organizations swiftly.
Various factions in Iran have different views on regime change, with some advocating for top-down change, others pushing for democratic reforms, but they are equally opposed to the US-Israeli attacks against Iran.
Iran’s Fractious Society
Another possibility of overthrowing the government is when Iran’s various ethnic groups rebel against it. Iran’s heterogeneous population is composed of the majority Persians (approximately 60 percent), Azeris (16 percent), Kurds (10 percent), Arabs, and Baloch (each accounting for 2-2 percent). Discrimination and marginalization have affected all of the minorities, especially the Balochs and the Kurds.
Approximately 5 million Baloch (the name of the tribe that speaks the Balochi language) reside in Iran. Their presence in neighboring Pakistan and Afghanistan could also cause separatist conflict to spill over the region.
A Kurdish insurrection in Iran would worry Iraq and Turkey, which have sizable Kurdish minorities wanting independence.
A Two-Way Street
The current turning point that we are facing could have two radical, long-term consequences.
One is that Khamenei’s unpopular regime, notorious for its corruption, military incompetence and economic mismanagement, could collapse under the pressure of the disaster.
Then, in all likelihood, an even more radical system would emerge to replace it.
The other scenario is that future Iranian leaders, whoever they may be, rather than giving up their right to enrich uranium and bowing to Trump and Netanyahu’s ultimatum, may decide to follow North Korea’s example and try to acquire nuclear weapons as quickly as possible.
As columnist Simon Tisdall highlights: “This could involve withdrawing from the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and rejecting the UN inspection regime. After years of trying to play by Western rules, Iran may finally behave like a renegade.”
