By The latest election in Australia resulted in a landslide victory for the Labor Party. In his victory speech, Anthony Albanese – the first Australian prime minister to be re-elected since 2004 – said, “We do not need to seek our inspiration overseas.”
The “Trump effect” seems to influence most major elections around the globe, as evidenced by its impact on elections in Canada and Australia. It will likely influence upcoming elections in Japan and South Korea as well. The new president’s stormy entrance into world politics seems to strengthen global actors who envision a future of cooperation and multilateralism rather than conflict-driven, noisy politics. As a result, these newly elected politicians will likely slowly distance their countries from their closest ally, the United States.
Trump signing the SUPPORT Act in 2018. Photo: United States Senate – Office of Dan Sullivan on Wikimedia Commons.
As N. Leo Crabe pointed out at Policy Solutions earlier this year, the return of Donald Trump and his administration’s nationalist “America First” policies, and the retreat of U.S.-led multilateralism are rapidly reshaping the global landscape. Amid rising, middle powers like Canada and Australia faced a defining moment before their pivotal national elections; voters were forced to consider the global implications of their choices. If centrist parties retain power, both nations could pivot toward coalition-building and multilateral diplomacy. But if conservative leaders aligned with Trump win, Canada and Australia may deepen their ties to Washington, potentially endorsing transactional foreign policies at odds with international norms.
Seems like President Trump’s policy influenced both elections, and voters chose to stay where they were just a few months ago, before the world order was shaken and began falling apart due to the Trump administration. The Liberals, in Canada, likely continue emphasizing climate diplomacy and multilateral cooperation, and Australia also voted for Anthony Albanese’s administration to stay in power.
If we recognise that both winning parties were likely to lose power shortly before the elections, we can easily conclude that this was also a strong public vote against a deepened Trump alliance in the new international politics.
With the United States’ negative approach to multilateralism, it seems like both countries have an opportunity to step up as global leaders. By strengthening partnerships through forums like ASEAN, CPTPP, and the EU, Canada and Australia may be able to fill the void left by U.S. disengagement, positioning themselves as key middle powers guiding the future of international cooperation.
Regional Engagements
After the 2025 election, the new Labor government in Australia will continue to base the country’s foreign policy on proactive regional engagement, development-driven diplomacy, climate diplomacy, and strategic balancing.
Australia has intensified its focus on the Pacific Islands and Southeast Asia, emphasizing climate cooperation, infrastructure development, and security partnerships. Initiatives include the Pacific Climate Infrastructure Financing Partnership and increased aid to the Pacific region, aiming to counterbalance China’s growing influence. Since actual aid levels of Australia have stagnated at around 0.19 percent of GNI, placing the country among the least generous OECD donors, it has the potential to grow spectacularly and become a major regional donor, which would somewhat offset China’s role.
Australia also has clear efforts to strengthen ties with Indonesia as a major partner, particularly in defense and maritime cooperation, amidst concerns over Russia’s regional activities. The relationship will likely remain stable and cooperative. Expect deeper economic ties via the “Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement,” expanded climate and green energy collaboration, and continued support for ASEAN centrality. Labor will also maintain respectful diplomacy, avoid pressuring Indonesia on AUKUS, and focus on mutual interests instead of great-power rivalry.
Climate Diplomacy
The Albanese government has set more ambitious climate goals, aiming to cut emissions by 43% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels and increasing renewable energy’s share in electricity generation to 82% by 2030.
These ambitions will also strengthen the country’s international climate leadership, both diplomatically and in green energy economic cooperation. Through green development aid, the country supports climate-resilient infrastructure and renewable energy in Pacific and Southeast Asian countries through foreign aid and partnerships.
Australia’s enhanced climate commitments have also bolstered its standing in international forums, with potential plans to host COP31, highlighting its leadership in global decarbonization efforts. The green energy focus also opens the doors to closer cooperation with like-minded countries, such as Germany, France, or the EU.
Balancing with China
Labor’s trade policy continues to focus on expanding economic ties with China. Trade Minister Don Farrell has expressed confidence in the relationship’s future, suggesting that two-way trade could grow from $300 billion to $400 billion annually. This aligns with Labor’s stance on leveraging Australia’s resource wealth, particularly in critical minerals, to bolster economic diplomacy.
However, despite economic cooperation, national security remains a priority. Labor has committed to increasing defense spending and aiming to enhance Australia’s defense capabilities amid growing concerns over China’s military activities in the region. That includes participation in alliances such as AUKUS and the Quad, reflecting a strategic alignment with like-minded nations. As already mentioned, Labor’s foreign policy emphasizes multilateral diplomacy and private channels to address human rights concerns in China, including issues in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong. While avoiding unilateral sanctions, Labor continues to express concerns through diplomatic avenues, aiming to balance engagement with advocacy for human rights.
Australian Senator the Hon Don Farrell, Minister for Trade and Tourism and Special Minister of State, visits China’s Minister of Commerce, Wang Wentao on 3-4 November 2024. Photo: Daniel Walding / DFAT / Wikimedia Commons.
Public opinion in Australia reflects a nuanced view of China. While a majority perceives China as more of a security threat than an economic partner, there is also recognition of the importance of a stable relationship with them. This ambivalence influences political discourse, with both major parties acknowledging the need for a balanced approach to China policy.
Overall, Australia-China relations are expected to be characterized by cautious engagement, with a focus on economic cooperation, strategic defense partnerships, and diplomatic efforts to address human rights concerns. This approach aims to navigate the complexities of the bilateral relationship while safeguarding Australia’s national interests. It is a balanced, cautious, and cooperative relationship that strengthens defense and security capabilities without taking an openly hostile stance toward one of the world’s biggest military powers, as the US does.
Balancing with the Trump administration
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has reaffirmed Australia’s commitment to the AUKUS alliance, emphasizing the continuation of trilateral defense cooperation with the United States and the United Kingdom. This alliance remains central to Australia’s defense strategy. Albanese’s government is also focusing on enhancing Australia’s independent defense capabilities, including the establishment of domestic missile production, to ensure national security amidst global uncertainties.
President Joe Biden greets British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese the AUKUS bilateral meeting in San Diego, Calif, March 13, 2023. Photo: U.S. Secretary of Defence on Wikimedia Commons.
The Trump administration’s imposition of a 10% tariff on imports, including those from Australia, has introduced new challenges to the economic relationship between the two countries. Despite these tensions, the Albanese government has opted not to retaliate, aiming to maintain constructive dialogue. However, Australia remains firm on key issues such as the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, biosecurity laws, and the News Media Bargaining Code, which the U.S. has criticized. Albanese has stated that these policies are non-negotiable and essential to Australian sovereignty.
Albanese has expressed concerns over the U.S.’s perceived retreat from global leadership roles, particularly in areas like climate change and foreign aid. He warns that such shifts could reshape global political dynamics, especially in the Pacific region. In response, Australia is seeking to diversify its international partnerships, focusing on strengthening ties with nations in Asia and the Pacific to promote stability and predictability in global affairs.
In conclusion, the new Labor government intends to balance its long-standing alliance with the United States with a more independent and diversified foreign policy. Although defense cooperation remains a cornerstone, economic and diplomatic engagements will focus on national interests and strategic autonomy. This nuanced approach reflects Australia’s commitment to its global partnerships while also asserting its sovereign priorities.
Official portrait of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Photo: Australian Government on Wikimedia Commons.
In the chaotic world of international politics, Australia may seem to be losing harmony with the United States. It is too early to say that the two countries are drifting apart, but Australia is definitely starting to form a more individual voice in international politics. As Zbigniew Brzezinski stated in his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard, US dominance is neither permanent nor guaranteed. A decline in US leadership without a clear successor could lead to global instability and regional conflicts. In his essay, Brzezinski envisioned a fractured world in which regional powers will play a crucial and more autonomous role. Reflecting on the events of this year, it is clear that these changes have begun, and the Australian government has decided to prepare for the new world order by becoming a strong, autonomous regional power.
